Travelling in the EU last year, it was difficult to avoid the Euro crisis and the recession in the UK. Everybody had both on their minds.
Especially in the UK, young people were speaking of moving to Australia for jobs. And probably the weather.
In the meantime, over late summer things deteriorated evan further in Europe and the UK, just as things appeared to be settlng down in the USA.
The Aussie dollar is rising again as the boom to gloom sentiment in China is now back to boom. As China goes, so goes Australia. But what my compatriots in the UK failed to realise is that Australia is experiencing a two speed economy. It is being hollowed out by the resources boom / China. Not dissimilar to the hollowing out of other countries' economies when China turns up. Think Asian crisis.
Australia: Boom in resources, gloom in all other sectors. Which are in contraction. This is confirmed by the central Bank, the RBA, dropping interest rates twice over the past few months.
Which has not affected the Aussie dollar oddly enough.
If any further data was necessary, Australia got it overnight. Unemployment has reached a high of 10.3%. That is 1,278,000 people out of work. Australia's highest ever number of unemployed, and the highest unemployment rate for a decade.
It gets worse. A further 7.5% of the workforce were under employed: 937,000 people. Yep, that makes a total of 2,215,000 un/deremployed, 17.8% of the workforce.
This data is provided by Roy Morgan, a renowned research company in Australia, and the graph of the last ten years is here. With further analysis.
As goes unemployment so goes property values. And Australia had its first national decline in 2011 in many years. There are many doomsayers about the property market in Australia. And certainly at a price of 5.6 times average salary (down from over 6 times) it is one of the priciest in the world. But those analysts overlook the oligopoly banking sector in Australia, that has a much greater capacity to manage the downside because of the closely held nature of the mortgage risk. Just four banks, more than 80% of mortgage lending, and they all learnt the lesson of the early 1990's when they all four rushed to dump their security [homes] on the market at the same time. Since then, it has been a seemingly collusive approach to loss management. And consumer laws are far more restrictive when compared to USA for example.
All the same, odd that everybody sees what they want to.
Also overnight, the USA unemployed rate fell to 8.3%. Well below that of Australia (although the measure above is unofficial). Yet in my travels I still here how well Australia is doing.
Maybe it is all that vitamin D from too much sunshine?
Especially in the UK, young people were speaking of moving to Australia for jobs. And probably the weather.
In the meantime, over late summer things deteriorated evan further in Europe and the UK, just as things appeared to be settlng down in the USA.
The Aussie dollar is rising again as the boom to gloom sentiment in China is now back to boom. As China goes, so goes Australia. But what my compatriots in the UK failed to realise is that Australia is experiencing a two speed economy. It is being hollowed out by the resources boom / China. Not dissimilar to the hollowing out of other countries' economies when China turns up. Think Asian crisis.
Australia: Boom in resources, gloom in all other sectors. Which are in contraction. This is confirmed by the central Bank, the RBA, dropping interest rates twice over the past few months.
Which has not affected the Aussie dollar oddly enough.
If any further data was necessary, Australia got it overnight. Unemployment has reached a high of 10.3%. That is 1,278,000 people out of work. Australia's highest ever number of unemployed, and the highest unemployment rate for a decade.
It gets worse. A further 7.5% of the workforce were under employed: 937,000 people. Yep, that makes a total of 2,215,000 un/deremployed, 17.8% of the workforce.
This data is provided by Roy Morgan, a renowned research company in Australia, and the graph of the last ten years is here. With further analysis.
As goes unemployment so goes property values. And Australia had its first national decline in 2011 in many years. There are many doomsayers about the property market in Australia. And certainly at a price of 5.6 times average salary (down from over 6 times) it is one of the priciest in the world. But those analysts overlook the oligopoly banking sector in Australia, that has a much greater capacity to manage the downside because of the closely held nature of the mortgage risk. Just four banks, more than 80% of mortgage lending, and they all learnt the lesson of the early 1990's when they all four rushed to dump their security [homes] on the market at the same time. Since then, it has been a seemingly collusive approach to loss management. And consumer laws are far more restrictive when compared to USA for example.
All the same, odd that everybody sees what they want to.
Also overnight, the USA unemployed rate fell to 8.3%. Well below that of Australia (although the measure above is unofficial). Yet in my travels I still here how well Australia is doing.
Maybe it is all that vitamin D from too much sunshine?
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