Monday 20 February 2012

Guns a proxy for the economy

Lawd luv ‘em.   The gun club in the USA

This came to me via Zerohedge.  In a release by ammo.net they claim "American firearm sales and concealed handgun permit applications are at all-time highs since the 2008 election of President Barack Obama."

That’s the first sentence of the release.  It then goes on to claim that the massive rises are attributable to the President.  

Aw gee, you know, what else happened at the same time as the election of President Obama?  Could something else have put the fear of massive social tension in the hearts and minds of the population of the USA?  Let me think.

How about a global financial crisis where banks aren’t safe, your jobs aren’t safe, and in every newspaper they are writing of economic Armageddon?  

I mean who believes this stuff?  It would be good for a laugh if it weren’t the fact that guns kill.  

Anyway it is worth having a look at the numbers because it will tell you how the USA population is thinking about there personal security which is a good proxy for the economy.  

  • 98% increase in Ruger quarterly firearm sales since 3Q08 from $117m to $232m
  • 33% increase in Winchester Ammunition’s annual sales since 2007, from $431m to $572m
  • $4 billion is the size of the USA commercial gun and ammunition market
  • 48.3% rise in Federal excise taxes collected on the sale of new firearms over the past five years (well that IS good news)
  • January 2012 is the 20th straight month of firearm background check increases yoy (so still rising then;  not good for economy then)
  • December 2011 1.41 million national instant criminal background checks, most ever for any single month
  • 129,166 background checks on November 25th 2011, the most over in one day and 32% over the prior peak
  • 2011 increase yoy background checks are up 14.4%; January 2012 vs 2011 17.3%
  • Nobody knows how many gun Americans own as a nation – somewhere between 270- 300 million.  Say, about 9 guns for every 10 citizens
  • And permits to carry concealed weapons are up substantially in many states over a similar period
  • And Ruger’s stock price is up 510% since Obama took office
  • And on and on it goes
You’d think that this group would be rooting for Obama to be re-elected wouldn’t you.  But somehow they are able to attribute the massive increase in guns to Obama [and the resultant wealth creation in this sector] but at the same time twist the tale to make it the reason NOT to elect him again.  Go figure.

This is a country of very frightened citizens.  And this news has just blown a hole in my recent theory that the economy is looking up in the USA.  No, they are looking right down the barrel of a gun.

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